Pelosi's Taiwan Visit: A PR success alongside a policy debacle
While Pelosi may have called China's 'bluff' and achieved a PR victory in visiting Taiwan, the US has committed an act of pure incompetence which now risks a severe geopolitical crisis.
Following weeks of tense anticipation and a volley of Chinese warnings, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would land in Taiwan on August 2, where she subsequently met with Taiwanese officials, including President Tsai Ing-wen. During this visit, she would proclaim that the visit “honours America’s unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan’s vibrant democracy",” and would frame the current global situation as a matter of the world choosing “between autocracy and democracy.”
The Chinese soon responded to what it saw as an act which “seriously infringes upon China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Within the first few days, China has initiated a series of large-scale military exercises surrounding the island, coincidently blocking Taiwan’s ports and thus establishing a de-facto blockade. Taiwanese officials have accused China of effectively conducting a “mock invasion” of the island, as Chinese missiles are fired over Taiwan and aircraft continue to enter the ADIZ. Chinese retaliatory actions were of course not limited to Taiwan, on August 4 China imposed sanctions on Pelosi and her family, forbidding them from engaging in business in China.
US and other Western allies were quick to criticise China’s reactions, with the G7 calling on China to not “escalate tensions”. US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, would state that “nothing has changed about our position [on the One China policy] and I hope very much that Beijing will not manufacture a crisis.” - a comment which effectively accused China of acting provocatively. Expectedly, China was quick to disregard such statements, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi even responded by calling the statement a “piece of waste paper,” and refuting it by arguing that in relation to the current tensions, “It is the United States that stirred up the trouble,”.
A Potentially Fatal Policy Debacle:
While the world continues to wait and see further Chinese countermeasures to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, it does not require significant effort to see the disastrous consequences this act has created with regard to China-US relations. Tensions were already problematic between the two countries before the visit, but there was still several levels of much needed cooperation - especially on matters of climate change, while they also maintained communication between military officials to ensure no escalation occurred.
However, in a singular day, we can see the US (via Pelosi) has effectively reversed these achievements. China, responding to what it viewed as a provocation, has reportedly cut off dialogue with the US on various issues - including cooperation on climate change, counternarcotic operations, and transnational crime. Furthermore, US Pentagon officials have stated that attempts to call Chinese counterparts have gone “unanswered”, a concerning development which expresses China’s extensive indignation over the US’ conduct in relation to the Taiwan situation - and thus we are now witnessing a complete, or at least initial, breakdown of China-US relations.
Yet, what makes these consequences truly tragic and in fact absurd, is that it was completely avoidable. Beijing made it no secret that a visit from Pelosi would violate one of China’s red-lines, that of its territorial integrity and the One China policy. It consistently warned the US against the action, and it was even noted that US military officials had opposed the trip due to its provocative nature. But still the trip took place, and now the world finds itself in a situation where two nuclear superpowers are increasingly facing off against one another - and the circumstances similar to what preceded the current Ukraine crisis beginning to form around the Taiwan Strait. It must be understood that irrelevant of what the US says about its commitment to the One-China policy, it is China’s perspective that it has now been violated. Attempts to argue that she [Pelosi] does not ‘technically’ represent the US government means little to Beijing, and it is foolish to emphasise such trivial points.
The severity of the diplomatic situation cannot possibly be understated, for the One-China policy forms perhaps is one of the most significant foundations of China-US relations - the Shanghai Communique of 1972, 1979 Full Diplomatic Recognition of China, and the 1982 Third Joint Communique; all of these which facilitated the normalisation of China-US bilateral relations involved a commitment to the One-China policy. Thus, in violating this policy, it can be argued that China views it as a violation of the very bedrock of which China’s relations with the US have been built upon.
We are already seeing expressions of this dismal state of relations with the US and ultimately with its allies. In an ASEAN meeting on August 5, Foreign Minister Wang Yi would walk out during the speech of the Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi - and would in fact be joined by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. This example, alongside the cuts in cooperation elsewhere, thoroughly illustrates the disastrous results of this simple yet destructive act.
From a strategic standpoint also, Pelosi’s visit has been detrimental. With US currently finding itself deeply involved in supporting Ukraine’s fight against Russia, it would have been wise to not antagonise the other nuclear power - especially while tensions are somewhat unstable. Yet, with this action, the US has effectively gifted Russia a much more willing ally. Though China has maintained a ‘neutral’ approach to the crisis in Ukraine, neither condemning or supporting Russia’s “Special Military Operation”, China is much more likely to seek Russia’s cooperation on a range of matters - ranging from the importing of raw materials to military development. Rather than Russia previously being seen as a ‘junior partner’ to China, it is foreseeable that this status quo may change as further potential cooperation is pursued.
And so now the US, from a strategic perspective, has found itself bringing two nuclear powers together through its shared mistrust of the United States - when before it was not certain at all.
And yet, amidst all this, what did Pelosi’s visit achieve?
Perhaps there may have been a slight moral victory won in defying Beijing’s warnings, but this has been at the cost of over 50 years of relations, and now threatens to destabilise the region and potentially see a conflict spark between the US and China.
If China’s reaction to this entire situation has indicated anything, it is that the status quo of relations between itself and the US has ultimately changed. It is reasonable to suggest that we will see in the coming months, if not years, a much more intense and accelerated pursuit of reducing its dependence on the US, both economically and politically.
We should very much anticipate moves from China to prepare for an eventual conflict with the US over Taiwan, a strengthening of relations with US rivals and non-aligned states, and an ultimate minimising of reliance on those like the US and its allies.
And if the US does not soon come to see the severity of the situation, and continues to fail to try to understand and respect China’s position on its redlines - there is little hope that diplomacy and cooperation will prevail. As long as the US continues to act in such a manner, provoking China with such small-scale but significant actions, it will risk going one step too far, at the expense of the rest of the international community.
Once again, we see a situation where the long-term consequences of an action goes unheeded, and if nothing is done to remedy the abysmal state of affairs - we risk letting it build up until it explodes with a force that shocks the entire world. Such is a lesson we should have already learnt.
While this indeed has been a rather pessimistic analysis of the consequences of Pelosi’s trip - there is good reason to be. We have been seeing China-US relations decay over recent years, and with the pandemic alongside a rather unorthodox Trump administration - it has been increasingly clear that tensions would come to a head sooner or later. Yet still, before this visit, China had continuously expressed its opposition to such tensions leading to a new Cold War.
However, after recent events, if a Second Cold War had not been already declared, it most certainly has now . And while this one looks so frighteningly similar to the old one, it is unlikely we will see the same outcome.